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margin-bottom:10px;"> <h1>中國經(jīng)濟(jì)未現(xiàn)過熱全年或?qū)ⅰ扒案吆蟮汀?/h1> </div> <div id="uweuiwugcuu" class="mainbox_01"style="text-align:center;color:#006aa2"> 時間:2010-04-08 08:20　　　來源：新華網(wǎng)</div> <div id="uweuiwugcuu" class="mainbox_02" id="textsize"><P>　　北京的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們表示，一季度中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速很可能達(dá)到兩位數(shù)，然而，并不能據(jù)此得出中國經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)過熱的結(jié)論，因?yàn)榻衲曛袊?jīng)濟(jì)很可能呈現(xiàn)“前高后低”的走勢。</P> <P>　　國務(wù)院發(fā)展研究中心宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)部研究員張立群對新華社記者說：“一季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增速達(dá)到兩位數(shù)是預(yù)料之中的�！�</P> <P>　　他表示，由于去年一季度基數(shù)較低(6.1%)，因此，不能簡單根據(jù)今年一季度的數(shù)據(jù)而得出經(jīng)濟(jì)過熱的結(jié)論，“一季度的高增長未必能持續(xù)下去”。</P> <P>　　中國一季度及3月份的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)即將公布。據(jù)權(quán)威機(jī)構(gòu)和主流經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)測，今年一季度中國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的增長將達(dá)到11%以上，這引發(fā)了市場關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)過熱的憂慮。</P> <P>　　國家信息中心預(yù)測部最新發(fā)布的報告指出，反映宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)景氣狀況的綜合警情指數(shù)已進(jìn)入“紅燈區(qū)中部”，其中M1月末余額同比增速、金融機(jī)構(gòu)人民幣各項(xiàng)貸款月末余額同比增速、發(fā)電量、工業(yè)增加值和社會消費(fèi)品零售總額當(dāng)月實(shí)際同比增速等5個指標(biāo)顯示“過熱”。</P> <P>　　根據(jù)中金公司首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家哈繼銘的預(yù)測，中國一季度GDP同比增速可能達(dá)到11.5%。而據(jù)國家信息中心預(yù)測部主任范劍平的預(yù)測，一季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增速甚至很可能達(dá)到12%。</P> <P>　　據(jù)世界銀行的最新預(yù)測，中國2010年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率將達(dá)到9.5%。</P> <P>　　中國建設(shè)銀行董事長郭樹清近日對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速回升可能出現(xiàn)過熱危險表示擔(dān)憂。他表示，GDP增幅如果達(dá)9.5%或以上，將“很成問題”，將意味著更多的重復(fù)建設(shè)、更多的產(chǎn)能過剩和更大的資本浪費(fèi)。</P> <P>　　但業(yè)界人士認(rèn)為，考慮到去年同期基數(shù)較低以及經(jīng)濟(jì)的不確定性等因素，并不能根據(jù)一季度的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)而得出全年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長過快的結(jié)論。</P> <P>　　范劍平認(rèn)為，盡管一季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增速可能達(dá)到12%，但二季度以后，經(jīng)濟(jì)及工業(yè)增速可能回落，當(dāng)前數(shù)據(jù)并不能表明經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)過熱。</P> <P>　　“除了去年基數(shù)低外，再考慮到未來出口以及市場主導(dǎo)投資增長仍有較大不確定性，因此很難由一季度的較高增長判斷經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)過熱。”張立群分析指出。</P> <P>　　他也認(rèn)為“二季度以后經(jīng)濟(jì)增速會逐步降低”。</P> <P>　　國家信息中心預(yù)測部發(fā)布的警情報告也認(rèn)為，警情指數(shù)進(jìn)入“紅燈區(qū)”并不意味實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)過熱。如果扣除低基數(shù)影響，今年1至2月大多數(shù)指標(biāo)僅恢復(fù)到“正常增長”水平。</P> <P>　　一份由中金公司發(fā)布的報告認(rèn)為，一季度各項(xiàng)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示當(dāng)前中國經(jīng)濟(jì)在穩(wěn)健復(fù)蘇的通道中，并無明顯過熱的跡象，市場對政策的擔(dān)憂有些過度。</P> <P>　　“物價同比上漲的幅度有擴(kuò)大趨勢，但主要是因?yàn)槿ツ晟习肽甑牡突鶖?shù)效應(yīng)，從環(huán)比來看，無論是CPI還是PPI(工業(yè)品價格指數(shù))都只是符合歷史上的季節(jié)性趨勢在逐步回升，并沒有加速上漲的跡象�！痹搱蟾嬲f。</P> <P>　　亞洲開發(fā)銀行中國代表處高級經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家莊健對新華社記者表示，一季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長很可能出現(xiàn)兩位數(shù)的高增長，除了扣除去年低基數(shù)的因素外，今年經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境的改善、貨幣政策的顯效也起到了一定作用。</P> <P>　　莊健說，今年的政府工作報告將2010年中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期目標(biāo)定在8%左右，希望經(jīng)濟(jì)能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)平穩(wěn)較快增長，而不要出現(xiàn)大起大落，一季度可能出現(xiàn)的高速增長既有其特殊原因，也有著階段性特征，下半年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長很可能會低于一季度的增幅。</P> <P>　　“不過貨幣信貸方向要適時調(diào)節(jié)，要保持均衡、穩(wěn)定，否則物價上漲過快、通脹等問題有可能顯現(xiàn)�！鼻f健警告說。</P></div> <div id="uweuiwugcuu" class="coupage"> <script> //createPageHTML(1, 0, "t20100408_1311045", "htm"); 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